Top clunker? The Ford Explorer

As Congress works to replenish the 'cash for clunkers' coffers, details on what drivers are trading -- and buying -- are emerging.

If you were wondering what America was going to do with all those Ford Explorers, wonder no longer. We're euthanizing them by the tens of thousands.

Of the top 10 vehicles traded in since the "cash for clunkers" program went live in late July, six are different model years of the once-ubiquitous Explorer, according to data collected by the Department of Transportation and reported by the Jalopnik automotive blog. Lumped together by nameplate rather than model years, its death-row companions include the big Ford F-150 and Chevrolet C1500 pickups, the Chevrolet Blazer SUV, the Jeep Cherokee and Grand Cherokee, plus the Dodge Caravan and Ford Windstar minivans.

The Explorer was for several years the nation's best-selling passenger vehicle, with more than 400,000 a year leaving showrooms in the late 1990s. The most-popular versions got around 15 miles per gallon.

As gas prices have risen and the fortunes of all SUVs dimmed, the Explorer fell on hard times, outsold in recent years by even the Toyota Prius. And now, the prospect of up to $4,500 toward a new car has led thousands of owners to dig out the keys to the family workhorse for one final ride. (See "'Cash for clunkers': The rules.")

Though all trade-in vehicles must be in drivable condition, dealers are required to disable the vehicles' engines before scrapping them, using a lethal injection of sodium silicate to replace the oil. The car is started and revved to at least 2,000 rpm until the engine stops, from three to seven minutes.

Gas savings about $1,100 a year

The analysis of the first 157,000 or so transactions under the Car Allowance Rebate System, or CARS, also revealed that the most-purchased new car was the Ford Focus, which gets an average of 28 mpg. The Transportation Department said the average mileage for cars to be scrapped under the program was 15.8; average mileage for their shiny replacements was 25.4 mpg.

For a car owner driving 15,000 miles a year and swapping vehicles achieving that fuel-economy average, the savings would be 384 gallons a year, about $1,150 at $3 a gallon.

Even just a week of cash for clunkers was enough to slow the dramatic, yearlong free fall in car sales. July was General Motors' best month so far this year, down just 19.4% over July 2008. Chrysler dropped only 9% -- a relief compared with declines of as much as 50% in recent months. Of course, its offer to match a clunker rebate with a $4,500 check of its own helped a lot.

Sales at Ford Motor, benefiting from an emphasis on its smaller cars and its Detroit rivals' bankruptcies, rose 2%.

"Cash for clunkers put us over the top," said George Pipas, Ford's chief sales analyst. "Lots of traffic, lots of sales."

As of Monday, $563.8 million worth of rebates had been processed through the government program, representing 133,767 new vehicles, the U.S. Department of Transportation said. A backlog of applications is expected to consume the balance of the $1 billion already set aside. Proposals to add an additional $2 billion to the program are working their way through Congress, enough to spur the purchase of about 500,000 more vehicles.

"This is the one stimulus program that seems to be working better than just about any other program. It's a lifeline for automobile workers and automobile makers," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told CNBC.

10 things moving companies won't say

A lot can happen to your belongings while going from one residence to another. And if something goes wrong, filing a complaint may not do much good.

1. 'We'll hijack your stuff'

The moving industry, which packs in nearly 55% of its business during summer, often leaves a trail of frustrated consumers in its wake. The U.S. Department of Transportation receives up to 4,000 household moving complaints annually, mostly about loss and damage, poor service or overcharging. The Council of Better Business Bureaus, meanwhile, reports that complaints about movers jumped from nearly 3,800 in 1997 to more than 9,200 in 2007.

Just ask Spyro Malaspinas, a victim of a botched move. He says Nation Van Lines, which he hired to move his belongings from Austin, Texas, to Chicago in January 2003, raised his bill from an estimate of $1,050 to nearly $4,300. The movers, according to Malaspinas, said his goods measured 500 cubic feet more than anticipated. When Malaspinas threatened to call the police, the drivers made off with his possessions, which he estimates were worth $47,000.

Despite an FBI investigation and the March 2003 arrest of Nation owner Eli Peretz by the FBI for alleged crimes with another moving company, Malaspinas wasn't thrilled with the final results: He got only about $25,000 -- and never saw his belongings again.

The experience was "paralyzing," he says. "It's not like somebody stealing your wallet; they have stolen everything you've got." (Peretz's lawyer did not return our calls; Nation Van Lines has since gone out of business.)

2. 'We're popular, especially with the FBI'

Peretz wasn't the only mover rounded up by the FBI in March 2003. The feds indicted a total of 16 moving companies and 74 operators, owners and employees on various charges after a two-year investigation called Operation Stow Biz. "It is the most significant crackdown that we've done," says a spokesman for the FBI's Miami division, whose undercover agents posed as potential customers to trap movers committing fraud, money laundering and other acts. Among those indicted were 20 officers and employees Advanced Moving Systems in Sunrise, Fla. The charges in the 60-count indictment include fraud, extortion, false documentation and "inflating the price of the move and, thereafter, withholding delivery of . . . goods until (customers) paid the inflated price."

Too bad Patrick and Tammy Runion didn't get advance word of Advanced's alleged practices. The couple booked the company for their move from Toledo, Ohio, to Lake Forest, Calif. Patrick says Advanced movers locked their stuff in storage in Chicago when he refused to pay an additional $500 because the load's weight had been miscalculated by a driver.

"We were so stressed and frustrated" by the ordeal, says Patrick, who eventually paid $1,000 to find the storage space. Attempts to contact Advanced officials were unsuccessful, and the company has since gone out of business.

3. 'Don't mess with us; we're virtually untouchable'

While the FBI sting did manage to take some bad guys out of play, Robert Julian, bureau chief for the Economic Crimes Division in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., doesn't think "consumers should breathe easy."

Scammers are tough to stop. Local police hesitate to get involved in moving disputes because they're considered civil matters, and while the FBI will investigate complaints involving interstate moves, getting property back is not its priority.

There are also federal laws to contend with that, historically speaking, have tended to protect moving companies more than consumers. It used to be, for example, that while dissatisfied customers could sue their moving companies for goods lost in a move, they stood very little chance of recovering even their basic monetary value, let alone winning any punitive damages on top of that amount. But the advent of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act in 2005 has given consumers and the federal government more authority in going after scofflaw movers; it "has helped the agency greatly in curbing abuses" in the industry, according to a spokesman for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

Today movers are being held liable in a way they never were before for at least replacing the value of lost items -- so long as the customer opted for full-value protection for their belongings in the initial moving contract. For more information, visit the FMCSA's Web site.

4. 'Someone will deliver your stuff -- it just might not be us'

In June 2002, Carole and Doug Stowers contracted with Elite Van Lines to transport the contents of their three-bedroom house from Palm City, Fla., to Bailey, Colo. Nothing unusual there, right? Guess again. Elite then subcontracted the job to other companies for the cross-country trip. The Stowerses were shocked when Majesty Moving & Storage pulled up to their new home with only half their possessions and didn't know what had happened to the rest -- after all, they hadn't loaded the goods.

Beware: In the hectic summer months, a mover might get so busy that it asks another company to help out with a job. That's fine, but the consumer should be notified in advance of the deal. A spokesman for the American Moving and Storage Association says, "For a completely different company to show up at your house with no prior arrangements, that is totally unacceptable."

No need to tell Carole Stowers that. She shelled out $5,375 to Elite -- the original estimate was $1,700 -- to get all her possessions back. "We almost went bankrupt trying to save our furniture," she says. (Both Majesty and Elite have since gone out of business.)

5. 'Our movers might have zero experience'

Even if one company does handle your entire move, don't assume that the movers who show up are actual employees of that company. Moving companies have been known to hire day laborers plucked off the streets on moving day. Peter Drymalski, investigator for the Montgomery County Division of Consumer Affairs in Maryland, says for smaller movers, "That's probably the rule rather than the exception, because they often don't have regular crews." The problem is that inexperienced workers are more likely to damage possessions.

Similarly, many moving companies contract with independent truck drivers -- a concern if the mover arrives in an unmarked rental truck. That's a red flag, indicative of a fly-by-night operator with limited fixed assets -- who would be difficult to go after in court. Swing by the company's offices before you choose a mover. If the company doesn't appear to have its own trucks, do yourself a favor: Cancel the job.

6. 'Our pricing policies are wacko'

Moving can test even the most time-conscious planner. For instance, it may be tempting to bypass getting an in-house and written estimate from a mover, opting instead to save a few minutes with a telephone or online estimate. But if you take the shortcut, be prepared to get burned.

Tim Walker thought he'd caught a break when he booked a mover online who gave him a lowball quote of $1,800 for a Virginia-to-Nevada move. But once his goods were on the truck and measured in cubic feet, Walker says, the price was jacked up to $5,012. He could pay only the original amount, so the movers held his belongings until he ponied up the cash six weeks later.

With an in-house estimate, you're likely to get a more precise idea of the cost. But you also need to consider how the mover is reaching that estimate -- is it by total weight or by cubic feet? Go the weight-based route, if possible. That will at least entitle you to witness all weighings.

It's pretty easy to check your bill to see if you've been overcharged. Simply divide the total weight by the number of items. If the average amount per item is more than 35 to 45 pounds, there's cause for suspicion. The trouble with cubic-foot pricing is that actual charges could depend on how the mover packed your items.

7. 'Extra fees and charges? You can count on it'

Understand this: There are many ways for movers to squeeze extra dollars from customers. Besides charges for accessorial services, movers have been known to levy exorbitant fees for such things as packing supplies. Sound petty? Sure, but they can add up. According to the American Moving and Storage Association, you can knock off some of these costs by packing your own nonbreakables, but movers may be reluctant to take responsibility for items they didn't pack.

There are also charges related to the specific circumstances of a move. You might get dinged for a "long carry," when the distance the movers have to haul your belongings from their truck to your door exceeds a certain limit; this is often applied in cities, where movers can't always secure parking directly in front of a residence, for example. Then there's the "flight charge" for having to lug goods up and down stairs in the absence of elevators.

"You just have to make sure you know all of these costs upfront so you're not surprised at the end," says a spokesman for the National Endowment for Financial Education, a nonprofit dedicated to promoting financial security and education. "If you start to incur these separate charges that weren't estimated before, you're going to have sticker shock."

8. 'We've never met a schedule we didn't ignore'

Thinking of moving during the last 10 days of June, July or August? Think again. Those are the busiest moving days of the year. Still, moving companies will often overbook just to keep you from taking your business elsewhere. Consider what happened to Jenna Callahan. She was scheduled to move from Boston to West Chester, Pa., in July, but the movers never showed up. "I lost a lot of time and sanity," she says.

But it doesn't only happen at peak times. In January 2002, Tyrone Kelley was set to move from Stoughton, Mass., to Las Vegas, but the movers didn't arrive until 6 p.m., seven hours late. Says Kelley, "It's a common tactic to arrive after business hours so that it's too late for you to find another moving company." He wishes he had, because U.S. Movers charged him more than double the estimate due to allegedly wrong weight calculations. They also locked his stuff in storage when he didn't have cash to pay for the job. It took three months to persuade the local police to serve a search warrant on the storage facility so he could reclaim his stuff.

U.S. Movers' executive vice president, Tom Timen, denied the weight was false, saying Kelley had more than twice the number of items listed on the estimate. "All we asked was to be paid for the services he agreed to," Timen said in 2003. U.S. Movers has since gone out of business.

9. 'Surprise! Our insurance isn't worth much'

Remember Carole Stowers? When she and her husband finally got their belongings back from Elite Van Lines, much of her furniture was battered and broken. The insurance adjuster from Crawford & Co. estimated $13,642 worth of damage. But little good that did -- she was entitled to just over $2,000 recompense. The reason? A mover's liability coverage, known as "valuation," doesn't work like a typical insurance policy. For interstate moves, standard valuation limits the carrier's liability to no more than 60 cents per pound, and it's often less for in-state moves. So if your 50-pound plasma screen TV gets smashed, you'll collect just $30.

The American Moving and Storage Association estimates that one in five moves involves a claim for damage. That said, you're better off getting some real protection -- say, through a rider on your homeowners insurance. At the end of the move, look over your possessions carefully before signing a receipt. If you sign and later discover a huge dent in your Chippendale dresser, the mover will point to the receipt as proof that the dresser was fine when he dropped it off.

10. 'We change addresses as often as our customers do'

James Balderrama called the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in June 2001 to register a complaint about his belongings being seized by a mover. Good idea. Too bad he didn't get a return call until 10 months later. The agency, a Department of Transportation division that oversees safety, licensing and regulation of trucks and buses, has only eight full-time investigators to police roughly 4,000 companies.

With so little manpower, the FMCSA lacks the muscle to rein in rogue movers. The agency fined 117 carriers in 2007 at an average amount of $13,000 per carrier -- chump change for an industry that brings in $10 billion annually. And companies that do get censured often remain defiant.

"Typically, they will not pay the fine; instead, they close down and reopen under a different name," says an FMCSA spokesman. Until regulators toughen up, take the FMCSA's advice: "Educate yourself before you hire a mover. Once you hire one, most of the time it's too late for us to do anything to help."

6 keys to investing for doomsday

These rules will help you prepare for the end of civilization as we know it in 2050 -- or whatever other worst-case scenario you can imagine.

In his 2008 best-seller, "Wealth, War & Wisdom," hedge fund manager Barton Biggs warns that investors must "assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure."

And to prepare for a breakdown of civilization, "your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food. . . . It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc." Bloomberg Markets suggested that by "etc." he meant guns, as Biggs added "a few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage."

That warning isn't from a hippie radical. Biggs was a respected Wall Street guru at Morgan Stanley for 30 years. As the company's chief global strategist, Institutional Investor magazine put him on its All-America Research Team 10 times. SmartMoney said: "Biggs is without question the premier prognosticator on the international scene and a mover of markets from Argentina to Hong Kong."

Biggs is advising America's wealthy elite. But what about Main Street Americans? Investors often ask me where to invest today, even Bogleheads and investors committed to the Lazy Portfolio strategy. They see the Goldman Conspiracy manipulating this rally. That worries many.

What do you believe? What value do you give to "the future"? First, answer these three questions:

What's your investment strategy if you know you might die on Dec. 21, 2012? Or possibly this year after getting a negative diagnosis from an oncologist? Or maybe not till 2050 when the United Nations says global population will be 50% higher (rising from 6 billion now to 9 billion), while demand for energy, oil, gas and coal doubles and the global supply of those commodities remains relatively constant?

Disaster films, terminal illnesses, 2050 and 'The End'

Behavioral economists have answers. But your gut's also good at predicting. So here's what you'll likely do:

  • You'll go see the upcoming disaster film "2012" about the end of the Mayan calendar. After all, it's by the same director who "destroyed" the earth in "The Day After Tomorrow," "Independence Day" and "Godzilla." No new investment strategies, but a must-see film, a great catharsis and distraction.
  • If you had a terminal illness, the future is here, now. There's no tomorrow. You're concerned about protecting loved ones and future generations with what you have, and enjoying time with them.
  • But how to invest for the "end of civilization" coming around 2050? The next 40 years will be confusing: accelerating struggles between aging populations and disenchanted youths, soaring commodity prices, global warming, peak oil, food shortages, famine, blackouts, rationing, civil disorder, increasing crime, worldwide jihads, riots, anarchy and other dark scenarios of a tomorrow with "warfare defining human life."

Yes, that's how doomsayers label the worst-case scenario. It also must be what ultraconservative guru Biggs worries about in his darker moments.

So back to the question: What will Main Street investors do? Here again, even with the planet's survival threatened, they'll go watch "2012," be entertained, experience a catharsis, feel relieved and afterward have dinner and slip back into denial. And later, they'll vote against anything that offers solutions to future problems, especially if it raises taxes.

Why? Very simple: Our "brains aren't wired to fear the future," writes New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof. We're wired to respond to crises, while pushing off the really big problems (health care, Social Security, etc.).

That's basic behavioral economics: Over tens of thousands of years, evolution has programmed our brains so that collectively we will behave in ways that are counterproductive, making an end-of-civilization scenario inevitable, a foregone conclusion, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Why? Because our brains are handicapped, we are literally incapable of acting soon enough to solve the problem.

6 simple rules

But there must be a very small percentage of you out there with a desire to make your remaining days on Earth as pleasant as possible for you and your loved ones. So here are Six New Rules Until the End of Civilization 2050. If they don't scare you, hopefully they'll amuse you. Or better yet, wake you up, maybe get you into action . . . before it's too late . . . before your grandkids are fighting over what little is left.

1. Greed is really good: Yes, if you are going to follow the same advice as the rich, you and your family always come first. Grab more than your share, many times what's fair. No remorse, because 2050 is coming sooner than you think. Create a protective wall of money and resources that will make whatever time's left as comfortable as possible.

2. Invest in Goldman Sachs and its Wall Street co-conspirators: Seriously, these guys are the poster boys for the word "greed." The Goldman Gang, Goldman Conspiracy, whatever you call them, these guys just took control of Washington and the Treasury; their rapid recovery is proof that "greed is great." Do what they do. Amass as much capital and goods as possible, ignoring the rest of us, then cruise to the finish line.

3. Frugality, stockpiling, hoarding: Thomas J. Stanley's "The Millionaire Next Door" says it's very simple: "Frugal Frugal Frugal! . . . Millionaires live well below their means . . . Being frugal is the cornerstone of wealth-building." That way you can stash away lots more for later when the going gets rough, when others attack to get what you've stockpiled.

4. Return to your roots: Remember Biggs' advice about subsistence farming. Survival instincts and personal ingenuity will be your best investment. Your family could be without electricity, water, gasoline in the final days, so keep "well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson."

5. Global warfare, plus ammo and guns: Five years ago Fortune did report on the Pentagon's "weather nightmare." Yes, the military warned of "the mother of all national security issues" as "the planet's carrying capacity shrinks (and) an ancient pattern re-emerges: the eruption of desperate all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies." So invest in the defense industries America needs as the rest of the world reacts more to our greed.

6. Accept death: Back in 1973, my first year at Morgan Stanley, I read Ernest Becker's brilliant Pulitzer Prize winner, "The Denial of Death." Today his message is even more powerful: Yes, we will all die, tomorrow. But to enjoy the days left, you must accept death today -- even as behavioral economists warn that our brains are our own worst enemies, as well as the planet's, for we are on a self-destructive path of no return.

Parable at the Pearly Gates

Too macabre for you? So you don't miss the satire, here is a final message, in the spirit of Milton Berle's classic movie, "Always Leave Them Laughing." It's from USA Today, told by that great comedian Carol Leifer:

"Mother Teresa died and went to heaven. God greeted her at the Pearly Gates. 'Be thou hungry, Mother Teresa?' asked God. 'I could eat,' Mother Teresa replied. So God opened a can of tuna and reached for a chunk of rye bread, and they began to share it. While eating this humble meal, Mother Teresa looked down into hell and saw the inhabitants devouring huge steaks, lobsters and pastries. Curious but deeply trusting, she remained quiet.

"The next day God again invited her to join him for a meal. Again, it was tuna and rye bread. Once again, Mother Teresa could see the denizens of hell enjoying lamb, turkey and delicious desserts. Still she said nothing.

"The following day, mealtime arrived and another can of tuna was opened. She couldn't contain herself any longer. Meekly, she said, 'God, I am grateful to be in heaven with you. But here in heaven all I get to eat is tuna and a piece of rye bread, and in the Other Place, they eat like emperors and kings! I just don't understand it.' God sighed. 'Let's be honest, Teresa,' he said. 'For just two people, it doesn't pay to cook.'"

So, cheer up. Maybe the "end of civilization" won't be all that bad, even for Wall Street, if you take Barton Biggs' advice and stock up on something other than tuna and crackers.